* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012014 07/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 56 67 76 85 88 88 81 76 72 69 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 56 67 76 85 88 88 81 76 72 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 56 64 71 70 60 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 9 8 7 8 9 19 27 42 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -7 -1 0 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 16 10 9 349 348 333 261 268 222 226 219 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.4 27.7 27.3 25.0 23.8 14.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 140 135 141 133 130 108 99 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 118 118 118 114 119 114 113 96 88 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 13 12 14 12 12 6 6 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 47 47 48 49 51 53 52 47 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 15 17 20 25 30 35 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -47 -31 -42 -52 -39 -42 1 4 15 23 53 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 25 18 1 -1 18 15 48 41 78 41 61 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 10 13 -1 -19 -37 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 99 89 86 84 109 184 110 51 215 255 213 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 29.5 30.8 32.3 34.3 36.7 39.2 41.7 44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.8 79.9 79.5 78.6 76.6 73.5 70.1 66.4 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 5 6 7 11 15 18 18 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 25 23 20 16 26 17 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -7. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 28. 28. 26. 24. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 26. 37. 46. 55. 58. 58. 51. 46. 42. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.6 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.6% 8.4% 5.3% 4.4% 7.7% 11.1% 14.8% Logistic: 5.4% 20.5% 10.9% 3.1% 1.5% 14.1% 28.5% 27.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 11.9% 6.7% 2.8% 2.0% 7.5% 13.3% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ONE 07/01/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 41 47 56 67 76 85 88 88 81 76 72 69 66 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 44 53 64 73 82 85 85 78 73 69 66 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 38 47 58 67 76 79 79 72 67 63 60 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 39 50 59 68 71 71 64 59 55 52 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT