* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 07/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 48 49 48 48 48 49 53 57 59 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 48 49 48 48 48 49 53 57 59 60 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 41 38 35 34 33 34 37 40 44 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 28 27 25 24 18 14 11 9 6 2 4 6 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 343 344 343 341 342 347 343 334 334 333 21 37 131 159 216 228 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 153 152 152 151 150 150 149 150 146 139 136 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 79 79 80 81 83 81 79 74 71 64 64 59 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -25 -33 -30 -7 -8 -10 -29 -31 -45 -35 -53 -45 -45 -43 -35 -29 200 MB DIV 64 70 55 73 98 49 61 18 25 0 21 17 19 -1 -12 -13 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -2 2 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 146 157 168 176 182 199 214 246 280 319 399 520 626 643 697 802 937 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 104.8 104.9 105.0 105.0 105.1 105.5 106.0 106.7 107.8 109.3 110.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 31 30 29 29 27 24 21 18 15 18 19 10 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 104.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##