* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 06/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 41 42 42 41 39 36 33 30 27 25 24 22 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 41 42 42 41 39 36 33 30 27 25 24 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 35 34 32 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 8 9 7 4 5 12 12 10 9 9 6 9 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -6 -5 0 0 0 -4 0 -4 0 2 3 4 6 SHEAR DIR 61 72 74 97 95 113 30 338 322 323 313 311 339 296 291 282 299 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.9 25.0 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 129 126 121 117 112 108 106 107 106 108 111 112 109 101 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 71 72 67 65 64 65 63 62 56 54 51 50 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 21 20 18 17 17 17 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 45 53 52 52 59 66 59 63 50 44 36 19 14 4 -5 -11 200 MB DIV 71 83 87 85 63 39 5 6 16 -11 -11 -4 -20 -20 -19 -12 -27 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 1 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 742 743 753 763 777 782 795 813 832 869 922 986 1087 1226 1352 1511 1662 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.0 115.5 115.9 116.6 117.1 117.5 117.9 118.4 119.1 119.9 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 113.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 18.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.2% 6.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 06/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##