* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 49 52 53 52 49 45 43 41 37 35 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 49 52 53 52 49 45 43 41 37 35 32 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 44 43 41 40 37 35 33 31 27 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 9 10 6 6 3 6 8 5 6 8 4 9 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 1 -1 0 -1 4 3 4 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 64 88 78 84 106 101 98 316 339 341 322 305 270 258 245 234 222 SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.2 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 139 137 134 127 121 118 115 115 114 111 110 113 113 110 110 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 78 74 70 67 64 64 63 58 56 53 56 50 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 39 51 63 52 39 49 51 50 50 50 50 44 35 22 15 9 200 MB DIV 50 70 47 61 58 28 19 1 5 3 6 -12 -19 -29 -4 -15 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 793 795 810 824 845 877 882 906 930 964 1014 1083 1154 1237 1332 1426 1520 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.1 115.7 116.6 117.2 117.6 118.1 118.6 119.3 120.2 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 17. 14. 10. 8. 6. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/30/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.0% 22.6% 16.8% 11.9% 18.2% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 19.9% 6.9% 3.7% 2.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 15.5% 9.9% 6.8% 4.7% 7.1% 6.6% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##