* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 54 56 55 53 50 48 47 46 43 40 37 34 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 54 56 55 53 50 48 47 46 43 40 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 43 45 44 44 42 40 38 37 36 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 6 6 2 4 2 7 8 8 4 9 4 4 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 1 2 0 2 0 -2 0 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 60 120 122 124 124 130 8 8 308 317 317 293 283 263 229 216 243 SST (C) 29.3 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 147 143 136 130 125 118 115 114 114 113 111 112 114 113 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 73 74 70 66 64 61 61 59 56 53 48 48 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 40 38 44 60 43 48 56 56 57 58 64 56 44 24 4 200 MB DIV 67 88 87 69 85 57 26 0 -20 -12 -21 11 -5 -13 -26 -12 -17 700-850 TADV -6 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 612 695 695 704 728 798 848 876 906 940 999 1067 1145 1226 1293 1362 1423 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 111.0 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.6 116.6 117.4 118.0 118.5 119.2 119.9 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 13 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 21. 20. 18. 15. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 33.3% 25.3% 19.0% 13.5% 21.6% 23.9% 16.3% Logistic: 12.5% 35.0% 19.3% 10.9% 5.0% 16.1% 10.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 7.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 25.0% 16.1% 10.6% 6.3% 12.7% 11.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##