* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 53 58 57 56 52 53 49 48 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 53 58 57 56 52 53 49 48 45 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 39 38 36 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 8 6 6 2 7 5 5 4 6 5 6 7 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 1 -3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 53 68 115 110 123 130 69 47 61 333 325 316 244 236 222 194 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 156 152 148 138 135 129 124 122 121 120 119 117 120 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 78 75 74 69 64 62 58 58 55 53 49 45 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 16 15 16 15 16 14 16 14 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 40 41 45 64 57 43 45 54 50 63 64 62 59 44 30 200 MB DIV 77 65 91 89 81 73 42 4 -5 -13 -40 -6 -14 -5 -10 -10 -33 700-850 TADV -10 -4 0 -1 -3 0 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 577 637 720 761 771 804 853 906 929 964 995 1028 1108 1213 1298 1355 1421 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.5 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.6 115.7 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.8 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 3 3 2 3 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 26 27 20 12 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. 1. -1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 23. 28. 27. 26. 22. 23. 19. 18. 15. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 25.2% 22.5% 16.7% 0.0% 19.0% 17.9% 17.6% Logistic: 4.8% 28.6% 13.4% 7.2% 4.1% 15.9% 21.8% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 19.5% 12.6% 8.2% 1.5% 11.9% 13.3% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##