* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042014 06/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 59 61 61 60 58 57 55 55 53 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 59 61 61 60 58 57 55 55 53 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 42 43 44 45 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 7 7 8 6 0 6 6 1 5 1 2 6 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 4 3 3 0 3 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 74 85 88 107 129 129 25 44 57 82 328 54 195 153 150 187 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 157 155 142 139 134 129 126 124 119 117 118 121 120 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 81 79 76 71 65 62 59 59 57 54 50 44 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 41 40 41 66 72 54 44 36 45 46 54 70 73 73 62 200 MB DIV 116 78 75 93 114 66 50 63 27 -16 -35 -24 -5 -2 3 1 -10 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 569 603 652 737 806 846 896 936 990 1040 1089 1157 1222 1282 1338 1406 1472 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.0 109.3 110.7 112.0 114.2 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.8 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 12 9 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 35 21 18 17 10 13 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. 26. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 23. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. 27. 25. 25. 23. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 34.9% 24.7% 18.2% 0.0% 20.7% 25.2% 38.5% Logistic: 4.7% 31.2% 15.0% 8.6% 4.9% 23.6% 33.1% 15.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 9.6% 6.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 5.6% 25.2% 15.3% 9.6% 1.7% 14.9% 19.5% 17.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 FOUR 06/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##