* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 26 24 25 29 32 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 3 9 5 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 282 299 289 280 265 254 253 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.4 23.9 23.1 22.2 21.6 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 111 105 100 91 81 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 40 39 37 31 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -23 -30 -28 -39 -35 -66 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -19 -36 -33 -26 -31 -27 -15 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 -1 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 447 466 492 493 486 496 507 527 513 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.9 116.6 117.1 117.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -29. -29. -30. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -20. -29. -40. -50. -57. -62. -67. -71. -75. -79. -85. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##