* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 36 33 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 33 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 41 36 32 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 15 19 17 19 19 21 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 4 2 2 6 3 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 241 266 275 281 288 266 257 255 232 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.5 23.9 23.3 22.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 124 118 116 111 105 99 92 86 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 47 45 47 44 40 36 31 29 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -10 -8 -7 -27 -34 -47 -57 -72 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -14 -17 -20 -25 -27 -37 -21 -8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -3 0 -2 0 1 3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 407 420 431 449 484 495 504 510 509 515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.1 112.6 113.1 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.0 116.5 116.8 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -20. -25. -31. -38. -44. -49. -57. -58. -60. -61. -61. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##