* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 49 45 42 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 49 45 42 35 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 43 39 34 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 13 17 22 20 19 24 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 2 3 0 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 236 261 289 297 294 269 251 231 234 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 129 124 119 114 109 106 101 95 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 48 46 47 43 40 33 31 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 18 18 16 13 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -7 -8 -5 -16 -26 -41 -34 -50 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 14 -13 -18 -27 -29 -23 -25 -4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 1 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 419 410 407 420 439 485 514 537 572 618 668 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.7 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.0 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -18. -25. -33. -41. -48. -56. -64. -66. -66. -67. -67. -69. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##