* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 72 70 67 61 54 46 40 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 72 70 67 61 54 46 40 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 68 64 60 53 47 40 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 13 10 17 20 19 17 15 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 4 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 288 249 218 232 271 275 272 261 244 224 205 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 137 135 131 125 119 116 111 107 102 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 56 53 45 42 38 34 29 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 19 17 16 13 12 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 18 9 4 0 -2 -15 -25 -35 -48 -68 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 73 32 -10 11 -26 -36 -25 -25 -31 -12 -2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 469 435 422 416 426 471 528 555 582 602 635 659 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.7 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -32. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -13. -19. -26. -34. -40. -48. -55. -61. -68. -68. -69. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.3 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 20.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.9% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##