* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 76 73 72 67 63 59 54 47 39 33 26 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 85 79 76 73 72 67 63 59 54 47 39 33 26 25 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 85 77 71 66 62 55 50 44 39 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 9 9 11 11 11 13 19 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 5 1 -1 2 0 3 4 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 295 272 240 196 259 282 263 247 236 224 229 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.5 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 142 138 136 130 124 120 117 113 105 102 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 56 47 42 37 36 32 30 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 20 20 18 16 15 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 27 25 14 0 -1 -7 -14 -27 -20 -28 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 83 65 9 15 4 -36 -37 -16 -20 -4 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 504 481 456 440 443 477 526 582 619 679 755 837 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.4 113.3 114.1 115.0 116.0 117.0 118.0 119.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 7 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -13. -18. -22. -26. -31. -38. -46. -52. -59. -60. -60. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.8 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##