* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 83 81 78 73 69 66 61 53 46 40 35 29 23 23 21 V (KT) LAND 95 87 83 81 78 73 69 66 61 53 46 40 35 29 23 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 95 85 78 73 69 61 55 49 44 39 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 6 10 10 11 10 10 12 9 12 15 17 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 0 1 1 2 3 4 3 3 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 104 257 218 207 236 294 286 245 261 224 222 208 222 220 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 142 138 133 127 124 121 118 108 106 108 107 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 59 58 57 52 44 39 35 32 28 24 16 13 13 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 14 12 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 15 22 21 7 2 0 -4 -11 -12 3 0 -22 -36 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 48 71 69 40 22 -18 -35 -27 -18 -14 -6 -4 -11 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -1 1 2 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 2 7 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 449 475 504 486 459 446 472 523 604 668 752 861 977 1098 1207 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.8 115.9 117.1 118.4 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 11 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -39. -42. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -12. -11. -8. -4. -1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -14. -17. -22. -26. -29. -34. -42. -49. -55. -60. -66. -72. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.4 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##