* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 86 92 96 99 96 89 82 74 65 58 51 46 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 75 80 86 92 96 99 96 89 82 74 65 58 51 46 40 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 84 87 89 89 87 83 77 69 61 55 49 42 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 0 2 10 6 7 6 10 11 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 0 2 6 4 -2 -2 -1 0 1 4 4 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 310 285 251 222 142 185 247 268 305 281 257 246 245 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.9 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 156 156 152 140 136 131 127 121 117 113 107 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 60 59 58 55 51 44 40 34 32 28 29 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 20 21 22 21 22 21 21 20 17 15 13 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 6 16 15 14 7 -6 -1 -2 -11 -14 -44 -45 -63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 32 40 68 27 12 58 4 17 -12 -25 -25 -28 -28 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 374 380 399 432 499 505 474 486 511 546 596 621 656 694 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.5 108.2 109.5 110.7 111.6 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.7 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 30 24 19 18 16 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 21. 14. 7. -1. -10. -17. -24. -29. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.8% 52.5% 50.1% 44.2% 37.2% 33.4% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 34.8% 55.0% 48.3% 38.7% 29.9% 26.0% 3.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 6.5% 54.2% 28.3% 14.0% 6.6% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 26.3% 53.9% 42.2% 32.3% 24.6% 22.2% 7.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##