* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 83 89 94 100 97 90 82 73 65 58 52 45 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 70 76 83 89 94 100 97 90 82 73 65 58 52 45 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 86 90 94 92 85 76 66 58 52 45 38 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 3 1 3 10 12 13 11 13 10 13 16 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 0 0 5 4 0 0 1 -3 2 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 326 335 84 167 339 246 248 257 287 306 266 254 224 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 157 155 145 138 132 127 121 118 114 108 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 59 58 56 54 51 50 45 39 34 32 29 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 21 20 21 20 19 18 16 15 12 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 6 4 10 11 6 -2 -5 -6 -7 -19 -27 -43 -39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 48 35 34 50 12 14 0 18 -8 -29 -24 -14 -29 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -6 0 -4 1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 380 408 413 430 496 546 503 505 520 553 594 626 658 695 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.7 106.4 107.1 107.7 109.1 110.4 111.5 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 37 31 24 20 18 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 24. 30. 27. 20. 12. 3. -5. -12. -18. -25. -31. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.5 105.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 11.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.8% 55.0% 51.0% 46.7% 40.9% 38.6% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 18.9% 45.0% 39.0% 29.6% 27.9% 17.1% 4.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 36.0% 14.6% 6.9% 6.5% 7.8% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 19.9% 45.3% 34.9% 27.7% 25.1% 21.1% 7.6% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##