* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 82 88 93 91 86 79 72 65 57 51 44 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 82 88 93 91 86 79 72 65 57 51 44 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 75 81 85 90 87 82 74 65 57 50 44 37 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 3 4 7 7 4 11 12 16 15 18 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -4 -2 2 4 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 335 325 358 322 298 267 236 229 264 299 295 261 236 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 158 158 156 149 139 135 128 123 119 116 110 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 56 57 55 53 54 50 45 37 33 26 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 20 20 19 20 19 19 18 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 8 2 3 15 6 -2 -9 -15 -10 -19 -18 -33 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 41 53 40 34 29 -11 12 22 -2 -23 -31 3 -10 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 341 365 394 413 428 480 542 515 500 522 553 585 631 661 696 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.7 110.0 111.2 112.2 113.1 113.8 114.4 115.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 40 36 28 23 19 14 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 26. 22. 14. 7. -0. -8. -14. -21. -27. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.4 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.6% 53.7% 46.9% 46.5% 39.0% 37.6% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 33.9% 25.8% 18.4% 22.0% 10.8% 7.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 33.8% 12.3% 4.8% 2.8% 9.5% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 15.6% 40.5% 28.3% 23.3% 21.2% 19.3% 8.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##