* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032014 06/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 62 75 80 84 81 79 74 67 63 57 51 45 38 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 62 75 80 84 81 79 74 67 63 57 51 45 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 51 56 67 77 86 88 82 73 62 54 46 38 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 9 9 9 7 8 8 10 11 17 15 23 25 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 2 3 2 1 1 1 5 6 SHEAR DIR 25 14 360 357 360 344 337 288 241 216 196 254 237 252 246 252 266 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.7 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 159 159 157 153 150 143 135 131 125 118 109 101 103 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 61 59 54 54 50 50 48 47 41 34 28 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 11 11 15 16 18 17 16 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 15 13 11 -7 -6 -3 0 -3 -14 -14 -20 -13 -18 -22 -27 200 MB DIV 70 77 49 42 32 10 17 12 26 6 1 -18 -4 -12 -20 -30 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 1 0 1 3 2 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 222 245 267 272 291 343 408 460 550 618 601 603 660 753 825 914 1034 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.4 102.9 103.5 104.1 105.4 106.8 108.1 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.4 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 29 31 36 38 26 19 18 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 16. 13. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 27. 40. 45. 49. 46. 44. 39. 32. 28. 22. 16. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 101.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032014 THREE 06/10/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 45.7% 31.0% 21.6% 15.3% 32.9% 33.3% 43.1% Logistic: 15.0% 42.4% 34.8% 23.4% 24.4% 41.4% 61.2% 46.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 33.4% 16.2% 4.9% 1.5% 15.8% 9.0% 3.6% Consensus: 10.3% 40.5% 27.3% 16.7% 13.7% 30.0% 34.5% 30.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 THREE 06/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##