* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 33 36 41 45 48 50 53 55 55 57 60 64 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 26 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 4 5 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 6 1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 180 179 199 222 247 293 279 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 151 144 136 130 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 7 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 83 82 81 80 79 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 86 74 62 45 35 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 89 86 85 68 69 39 67 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 164 111 55 6 -44 -113 -91 -59 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.2 94.2 94.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 22 17 12 5 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 25. 27. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 94.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 23.9% 21.8% 16.3% 0.0% 18.2% 16.9% 16.9% Logistic: 4.2% 34.9% 19.1% 10.3% 1.6% 22.0% 20.9% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% Consensus: 5.0% 21.4% 14.3% 9.0% 0.5% 14.2% 13.3% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##