* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022014 06/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 37 41 45 49 53 55 57 60 63 64 64 67 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 37 41 45 49 53 55 49 37 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 36 38 40 39 32 29 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 5 3 3 6 4 4 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 6 4 0 0 -4 -4 -7 -4 -6 -3 -7 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 157 128 105 130 191 282 290 314 292 331 355 353 284 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 157 158 158 156 154 152 149 146 143 137 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -50.6 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.7 -50.9 -51.7 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 81 83 82 82 82 81 82 80 79 75 70 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 87 89 87 89 74 70 70 84 91 93 94 92 94 93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 106 117 112 103 58 61 57 71 69 65 71 51 49 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 220 219 215 184 152 108 64 53 31 20 -2 -24 -47 -80 -102 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.5 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.0 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.9 94.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 24 26 29 27 26 23 22 18 16 13 10 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 94.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 46.5% 26.6% 19.2% 0.0% 30.4% 41.1% 52.2% Logistic: 19.9% 67.3% 48.1% 35.6% 6.7% 64.0% 48.8% 53.8% Bayesian: 6.4% 48.7% 51.1% 24.5% 1.0% 41.4% 49.7% 30.6% Consensus: 13.1% 54.2% 41.9% 26.4% 2.6% 45.3% 46.5% 45.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022014 TWO 06/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##