* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 18 19 20 21 23 27 29 31 34 37 40 44 48 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 18 19 20 21 23 27 29 31 34 37 40 44 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 8 9 7 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 0 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 154 157 153 153 136 110 112 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 140 140 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 62 59 57 54 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 44 42 46 59 59 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 43 55 49 42 20 21 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 571 535 499 479 460 460 483 537 599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.1 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 108.9 108.5 108.3 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.7 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 0 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING