* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 48 44 42 37 33 31 28 28 30 31 30 33 35 36 36 V (KT) LAND 60 53 48 44 42 37 33 31 28 28 30 31 30 33 35 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 52 47 43 39 34 29 26 24 23 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 11 13 10 7 7 9 11 9 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 6 11 9 2 2 3 9 11 13 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 191 188 190 193 205 201 136 117 117 102 89 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 133 131 129 128 128 130 130 131 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 60 56 47 42 37 32 30 29 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 19 20 18 15 13 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 37 46 47 56 52 41 35 43 47 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 53 41 22 42 8 35 28 10 -11 14 -4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 5 4 0 0 -1 0 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 965 932 897 849 800 737 700 688 698 708 722 748 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.4 112.2 112.0 111.8 111.4 111.2 111.1 111.1 111.1 111.2 111.4 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 10 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -18. -23. -27. -29. -32. -32. -30. -29. -30. -27. -25. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.5 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.91 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.8% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##