* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 50 47 44 41 38 32 33 34 34 34 35 35 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 65 56 50 47 44 41 38 32 33 34 34 34 35 35 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 65 55 48 43 39 34 29 26 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 14 14 11 7 5 7 9 14 12 12 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 5 11 4 2 5 6 16 10 7 6 6 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 199 196 185 178 208 208 174 134 101 101 109 97 101 108 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 133 130 129 127 125 126 127 125 126 126 127 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 62 62 53 44 39 31 31 29 31 30 32 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 24 23 23 21 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 35 37 41 45 46 39 33 37 39 47 47 44 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 64 54 49 43 16 15 17 -4 -7 -5 -3 0 -23 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 2 4 1 -3 -3 0 3 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 982 935 887 839 790 687 637 639 655 693 723 765 796 847 889 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.3 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 112.7 112.6 112.4 112.2 111.6 111.3 111.4 111.6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 4 1 0 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 11 8 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -33. -32. -31. -31. -30. -30. -30. -31. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.5 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##