* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 88 80 74 67 60 62 60 56 56 55 54 52 50 49 46 V (KT) LAND 105 96 88 80 74 67 60 62 60 56 56 55 54 52 50 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 88 81 75 64 55 49 44 42 42 43 44 43 42 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 20 18 16 11 7 9 9 5 7 10 13 11 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 5 6 6 7 8 6 -4 -1 0 3 5 8 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 178 175 186 197 208 196 224 190 180 198 152 134 120 124 126 129 133 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 145 141 136 132 129 129 129 127 127 127 126 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 68 66 64 58 51 46 40 38 36 40 42 39 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 20 20 22 20 22 20 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 63 61 64 49 46 52 48 53 48 48 39 39 48 45 34 21 15 200 MB DIV 113 97 74 67 87 105 53 50 3 -7 8 13 -3 8 -3 7 -4 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 2 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 993 971 951 933 913 857 814 766 741 714 703 693 699 723 763 805 859 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.2 112.3 112.3 112.1 112.0 111.8 111.8 111.8 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 27 23 19 12 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. -43. -45. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -14. -9. -4. -1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -2. -5. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -31. -38. -45. -43. -45. -49. -49. -50. -51. -53. -55. -56. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.2 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##