* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 145 145 137 130 111 91 75 65 62 54 44 38 36 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 135 145 145 137 130 111 91 75 65 62 54 44 38 36 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 135 143 140 134 127 110 92 78 66 56 48 44 42 42 43 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 15 14 21 21 23 17 11 9 9 6 11 10 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 2 2 8 4 3 1 0 -3 1 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 138 177 169 161 148 158 195 187 209 189 193 138 147 104 110 107 118 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 155 155 151 146 143 140 138 137 137 136 133 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 65 70 71 67 66 61 56 50 44 43 38 37 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 23 25 24 23 22 21 20 17 14 11 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 54 48 50 49 34 35 28 39 32 28 34 22 30 23 28 200 MB DIV 75 66 13 2 63 90 70 77 59 57 11 19 3 21 36 32 10 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1074 1059 1044 1022 1001 940 890 850 801 757 691 615 564 554 558 570 593 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.7 111.5 111.3 110.9 110.4 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 40 40 39 32 26 19 15 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -27. -38. -48. -56. -62. -66. -67. -68. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -11. -6. -1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 14. 19. 18. 15. 8. -0. -8. -12. -11. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -17. -14. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 10. 2. -5. -24. -44. -60. -70. -73. -81. -91. -97. -99.-101.-102.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 11.7 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 59.0% 20.1% 14.9% 13.5% 11.9% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 22.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 43.6% 6.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##