* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 96 97 96 91 82 72 65 60 55 52 47 42 39 37 34 V (KT) LAND 85 92 96 97 96 91 82 72 65 60 55 52 47 42 39 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 95 96 95 90 80 68 57 48 42 37 34 32 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 17 22 23 25 26 22 21 18 15 14 9 16 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 2 1 4 3 6 8 7 -1 1 -2 -3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 148 157 170 174 174 196 199 210 204 203 186 197 161 164 140 121 115 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 155 157 156 152 148 145 141 138 137 137 138 139 142 143 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.8 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 66 70 72 72 72 71 70 67 61 54 51 45 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 22 23 23 21 21 21 20 21 19 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 39 37 40 40 41 35 34 39 35 39 52 55 61 57 43 200 MB DIV 86 98 68 62 47 80 86 97 100 69 67 37 34 24 40 30 22 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1054 1051 1050 1035 1021 978 917 876 835 803 761 722 676 628 608 640 668 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.2 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.2 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 42 44 44 43 35 28 21 15 11 10 9 10 11 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 11. 6. -3. -12. -20. -25. -30. -33. -38. -43. -46. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 11.5 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.1% 38.5% 26.9% 20.7% 16.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 53.1% 43.9% 26.8% 21.8% 18.8% 7.6% 2.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 76.2% 80.8% 68.8% 56.1% 27.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 58.5% 54.4% 40.8% 32.9% 20.8% 11.7% 0.8% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##