* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 84 92 100 108 104 95 82 70 57 46 37 31 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 65 75 84 92 100 108 104 95 82 70 57 46 37 31 28 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 65 75 83 90 96 105 105 97 84 70 56 46 37 31 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 5 4 15 22 22 21 24 24 25 25 19 15 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 5 6 9 5 4 4 2 2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 126 124 110 118 118 153 161 192 198 190 203 203 224 225 221 197 189 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 155 157 156 154 150 147 142 134 131 130 131 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 64 64 66 67 63 63 59 54 48 44 38 35 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 22 22 23 25 23 22 21 18 15 13 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 42 45 37 34 40 41 30 31 27 17 23 9 0 14 1 23 200 MB DIV 88 103 87 52 52 42 83 69 96 67 40 26 11 -2 7 21 8 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1027 1032 1039 1041 1043 1036 1017 978 936 887 814 706 626 566 515 478 450 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.3 111.6 111.8 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 39 41 42 44 44 39 31 24 14 5 3 3 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 35. 43. 39. 30. 17. 5. -8. -18. -28. -34. -37. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.3 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 15.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 16.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 12.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 16.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 74.5% 86.1% 85.5% 79.6% 68.6% 58.4% 27.7% 15.1% Logistic: 65.8% 81.2% 76.9% 72.4% 66.7% 56.4% 36.8% 9.4% Bayesian: 80.2% 92.5% 90.9% 87.7% 48.3% 79.6% 30.5% 0.7% Consensus: 73.5% 86.6% 84.4% 79.9% 61.2% 64.8% 31.7% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##