* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 76 83 93 92 88 76 68 58 49 41 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 76 83 93 92 88 76 68 58 49 41 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 72 78 87 90 87 77 66 55 45 37 31 27 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 10 8 9 15 17 20 20 18 24 26 21 14 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 3 5 8 7 7 4 0 5 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 137 121 142 150 150 172 197 197 214 210 228 233 232 254 239 253 184 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 155 156 156 156 153 148 143 136 132 132 130 127 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 64 64 65 65 63 61 62 57 56 49 43 36 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 20 22 20 22 20 19 16 14 11 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 39 43 38 39 41 43 33 35 29 25 24 13 16 12 28 200 MB DIV 109 89 78 81 79 75 59 86 69 89 73 22 6 -15 -9 -11 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 3 5 2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1011 1018 1027 1034 1043 1053 1041 1008 971 918 841 734 635 520 450 408 370 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.8 110.2 110.6 110.9 111.3 111.6 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.1 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 38 41 42 44 44 43 36 27 15 6 4 4 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 6. 5. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 33. 43. 42. 38. 26. 18. 8. -1. -9. -16. -19. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.3 109.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 15.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 11.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 11.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 12.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 10.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -9.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 6.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 77% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.2% 79.8% 72.5% 63.7% 51.9% 77.0% 55.0% 28.1% Logistic: 52.9% 73.5% 65.7% 58.0% 49.1% 62.1% 45.4% 18.3% Bayesian: 44.7% 85.2% 83.4% 71.7% 42.8% 73.1% 55.8% 5.9% Consensus: 47.6% 79.5% 73.9% 64.5% 47.9% 70.8% 52.1% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##