* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 61 71 78 91 93 91 83 76 67 59 54 47 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 45 53 61 71 78 91 93 91 83 76 67 59 54 47 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 67 74 87 94 94 88 80 69 58 50 42 37 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 7 10 7 17 15 26 22 18 15 11 14 10 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 2 8 3 5 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 144 123 98 126 141 184 180 173 176 192 197 209 210 254 306 45 124 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 157 157 156 157 157 154 151 148 143 139 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 73 71 68 67 68 69 69 69 67 66 62 56 48 42 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 18 18 21 21 23 22 22 20 19 17 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 34 37 38 35 37 37 38 31 25 19 36 22 17 23 14 200 MB DIV 121 108 71 64 78 65 60 77 109 88 83 51 38 7 -1 25 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 4 2 1 0 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 997 1006 1012 1020 1030 1050 1038 1035 1009 963 931 876 800 720 661 622 585 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.8 112.0 112.0 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 38 40 43 44 45 44 37 29 21 14 9 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 9. 10. 7. 5. 3. -2. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 26. 33. 46. 48. 46. 38. 31. 22. 14. 9. 2. -3. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 14.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 10.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.5% 72.9% 63.5% 55.8% 41.7% 68.1% 61.3% 39.9% Logistic: 58.4% 81.2% 73.4% 66.5% 59.9% 76.1% 74.5% 52.9% Bayesian: 42.8% 83.7% 81.7% 69.4% 43.8% 77.4% 63.5% 9.7% Consensus: 46.2% 79.3% 72.9% 63.9% 48.5% 73.9% 66.4% 34.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##