* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 60 68 71 73 75 75 75 74 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 60 68 71 73 75 75 75 74 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 43 48 51 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 7 8 6 10 12 9 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -3 -7 -3 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 177 184 177 171 168 161 157 174 176 209 202 183 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 156 157 155 155 154 153 153 154 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -51.8 -52.5 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 77 75 73 71 73 73 72 74 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 19 22 23 24 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 13 18 25 29 23 26 25 32 28 26 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 110 96 100 100 74 48 28 72 62 89 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 980 985 990 993 997 1002 1004 1008 1018 1026 1067 1141 1212 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.2 110.5 110.9 111.5 112.5 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 31 32 34 35 36 37 37 36 35 34 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 35. 43. 46. 48. 50. 50. 50. 49. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 107.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 15.8% 6.9% 2.9% 3.7% 12.6% 68.5% 75.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.4% 5.7% 1.5% 0.3% 2.2% 1.9% 21.3% Consensus: 0.9% 15.8% 10.6% 1.5% 1.3% 11.0% 29.1% 32.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##