* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 56 56 56 50 56 64 58 49 41 37 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 55 56 56 56 50 56 64 58 49 41 37 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 53 56 56 52 53 54 51 51 55 56 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 23 18 12 13 20 31 27 26 35 12 17 28 38 50 126 97 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 4 8 7 8 6 3 13 21 -13 14 SHEAR DIR 167 182 213 225 191 196 186 174 157 121 132 167 171 167 243 246 220 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.4 24.0 24.1 22.8 20.2 17.5 14.9 12.9 9.9 7.4 6.1 5.2 4.3 1.5 0.9 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 100 98 100 94 84 77 72 69 66 64 63 63 63 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 88 87 86 89 85 78 72 68 66 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.2 -57.3 -57.8 -58.0 -59.0 -59.0 -58.8 -56.8 -55.4 -54.5 -54.4 -52.8 -51.1 -55.9 -60.7 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.4 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 5.0 3.3 1.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 50 50 51 43 36 29 31 43 61 65 49 62 72 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 32 31 29 26 25 27 24 30 36 33 28 29 31 24 15 850 MB ENV VOR 196 171 156 142 125 115 116 170 252 280 282 263 239 166 -10 90 287 200 MB DIV 47 64 54 59 52 77 67 28 28 45 55 69 66 31 23 66 28 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 1 5 -9 -46 -48 -85 -37 0 -6 -126 -102 -17 283 28 LAND (KM) 1721 1754 1718 1641 1568 1316 1090 1071 1143 1216 1221 1156 1014 907 896 838 634 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.6 32.5 35.0 38.1 41.2 44.5 48.0 51.1 53.6 55.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.2 54.4 53.8 53.3 50.7 46.7 42.1 38.7 36.5 36.4 38.3 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 10 13 19 23 22 20 17 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -15. -22. -28. -44. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 20. 19. 16. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -15. -7. -0. -6. -12. -12. -9. -17. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 6. 14. 8. -1. -9. -13. -38. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.5 54.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 55 56 56 56 50 56 64 58 49 41 37 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 53 53 53 47 53 61 55 46 38 34 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 48 48 48 42 48 56 50 41 33 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 41 41 35 41 49 43 34 26 22 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT