* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SONIA EP182013 11/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 41 39 35 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 41 39 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 43 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 17 24 37 60 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 7 4 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 202 218 234 234 230 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.5 25.7 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 149 148 151 122 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 5 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 48 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 10 25 18 35 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 22 34 52 47 62 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 0 -3 10 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 400 287 191 140 60 -223 -490 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.6 25.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 109.6 109.1 108.3 107.6 106.0 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 9 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -17. -29. -39. -47. -51. -54. -56. -60. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -17. -25. -33. -38. -40. -42. -46. -51. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 18.5% 16.8% 12.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 6.5% 5.9% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 SONIA 11/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##