* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 32 33 29 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 32 33 29 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 29 25 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 13 12 10 15 38 61 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 5 9 4 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 85 117 149 190 221 234 229 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.7 25.6 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 146 149 142 121 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 6 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 53 53 49 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 25 20 15 18 30 44 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 27 41 14 -7 32 49 42 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 -5 -9 10 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 466 472 480 434 356 147 38 -243 -515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.0 19.7 21.8 24.2 26.4 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.3 109.7 109.9 110.0 109.2 107.9 106.2 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 9 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 10 9 11 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -20. -30. -36. -39. -40. -42. -45. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. -1. -3. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. -24. -27. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.7% 12.8% 8.2% 0.0% 12.2% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 4.3% 2.8% 0.0% 4.1% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##