* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182013 11/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 36 38 35 30 20 20 21 21 20 18 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 36 38 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 11 9 10 4 18 34 57 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 1 0 7 5 4 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 77 87 87 88 139 206 227 229 227 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.5 25.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 149 147 144 150 154 150 123 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 58 58 59 59 59 56 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 32 28 17 17 22 17 22 30 79 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 54 56 32 38 34 30 49 84 55 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -9 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 452 464 479 502 525 478 324 192 45 -216 -465 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.6 20.0 21.7 23.6 25.6 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.5 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.2 109.7 108.6 107.4 105.9 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 9 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 14 12 9 10 13 12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -11. -25. -26. -27. -28. -30. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 5. -0. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.14 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.97 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.2% 12.6% 8.2% 0.0% 12.4% 13.9% 15.7% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.7% 4.3% 2.8% 0.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182013 EIGHTEEN 11/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##