* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 64 56 47 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 72 64 56 47 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 73 66 57 49 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 26 27 23 26 31 33 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 12 6 5 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 236 233 246 243 214 216 226 232 224 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 125 125 124 119 114 110 110 109 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 63 63 60 59 51 40 32 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 22 19 15 13 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 30 27 30 25 20 35 51 53 63 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 61 43 42 22 27 29 34 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 3 0 -3 -2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1052 1017 982 948 908 844 795 765 750 750 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.1 117.1 117.1 117.0 116.7 116.5 116.3 116.2 116.2 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -25. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -27. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -33. -47. -60. -71. -80. -87. -90. -91. -93. -94. -96. -97. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.2 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##