* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 88 82 75 57 42 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 88 82 75 57 42 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 88 81 73 55 39 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 22 23 28 22 21 26 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 10 7 12 15 9 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 218 230 237 246 258 221 229 226 220 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 133 130 128 127 126 122 119 118 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 64 63 61 57 50 43 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 22 22 18 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 21 28 26 7 9 21 50 63 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 45 49 61 42 15 44 28 40 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 2 3 5 3 2 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1134 1100 1068 1028 990 918 874 835 810 810 810 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.7 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.1 117.0 116.9 116.7 116.6 116.6 116.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -34. -36. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -8. -15. -33. -48. -59. -68. -75. -80. -82. -84. -86. -87. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.9 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/28/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##