* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 82 79 74 60 46 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 83 82 79 74 60 46 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 82 79 74 59 44 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 20 23 23 20 21 27 29 25 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 14 11 14 9 6 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 167 206 218 231 251 248 217 225 221 226 211 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 139 135 132 128 127 124 118 114 110 109 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 61 62 64 64 63 59 57 48 41 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 22 22 18 16 13 10 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 20 27 28 22 2 20 30 55 41 50 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 87 47 41 50 44 21 60 38 25 23 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 2 5 5 5 5 5 6 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1173 1152 1135 1096 1059 983 912 848 794 750 716 692 664 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.7 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.2 116.9 116.6 116.3 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -24. -22. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -6. -20. -34. -44. -54. -62. -71. -76. -81. -82. -83. -84. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 21.1% 20.1% 15.8% 11.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 4.6% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 8.8% 7.5% 5.8% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##