* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 81 78 70 62 51 43 36 30 28 28 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 79 81 78 70 62 51 43 36 30 28 28 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 78 79 74 63 51 40 32 27 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 10 13 17 12 12 12 14 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 6 12 7 14 8 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 154 160 167 200 224 224 214 193 199 196 197 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 143 142 140 135 130 127 126 126 128 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 63 66 67 68 65 62 55 54 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 22 21 20 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 6 6 7 15 10 2 1 10 28 58 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 43 47 66 57 55 19 32 80 50 65 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1167 1168 1176 1170 1168 1114 1059 997 967 968 985 1002 1027 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.4 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.2 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.5 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.5 117.4 117.0 116.7 116.5 116.4 116.4 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 11 11 8 4 2 2 2 3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 16. 13. 5. -3. -14. -22. -29. -35. -37. -37. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.4 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.3% 46.4% 41.5% 34.8% 21.5% 19.8% 14.3% 10.5% Logistic: 46.1% 49.7% 34.8% 30.6% 8.6% 14.1% 2.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 12.3% 14.8% 5.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 35.5% 37.0% 27.3% 22.8% 10.3% 11.5% 5.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##