* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 57 62 64 62 53 46 38 31 26 27 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 57 62 64 62 53 46 38 31 26 27 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 54 53 48 40 31 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 13 13 16 20 19 19 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 1 4 11 10 14 10 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 113 131 167 162 177 200 200 226 205 221 225 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 146 144 138 130 128 126 125 126 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 64 65 65 65 66 66 64 60 46 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 22 23 22 19 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 6 9 3 11 11 14 9 31 37 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 32 35 45 38 51 36 52 32 44 35 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 2 5 3 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1024 1103 1151 1163 1182 1172 1107 1013 929 875 821 782 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.1 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.1 114.1 115.0 115.8 117.0 117.3 117.1 116.7 116.4 116.0 115.5 115.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 13 12 13 10 3 3 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 17. 8. 1. -7. -14. -19. -18. -18. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 25.8% 24.8% 18.7% 13.6% 19.7% 17.6% 14.1% Logistic: 6.5% 22.8% 12.3% 7.8% 0.6% 6.2% 3.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 17.0% 12.5% 8.9% 4.8% 8.7% 7.0% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##