* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 64 70 71 70 68 59 53 42 34 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 64 70 71 70 68 59 53 42 34 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 62 60 52 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 3 3 6 11 12 16 22 18 25 31 37 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 1 -2 -1 0 4 5 14 14 3 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 196 182 183 138 162 162 171 188 209 200 199 225 239 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.7 25.9 25.0 24.6 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 149 149 150 144 143 137 131 129 120 112 108 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 60 60 64 62 64 63 59 52 37 27 22 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 20 15 13 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -12 -12 -4 12 7 18 25 22 40 49 74 71 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 72 32 14 33 30 36 82 77 55 61 20 -3 1 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 3 7 7 4 -2 5 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 769 842 923 1006 1093 1156 1182 1166 1105 993 876 773 640 471 303 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.3 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.1 114.9 116.3 117.3 117.7 117.5 117.1 116.6 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 14 14 14 11 14 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. 2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 20. 21. 20. 18. 9. 3. -8. -16. -25. -35. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.6 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 11.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 56.3% 47.5% 32.1% 21.1% 42.0% 30.7% 15.7% Logistic: 47.8% 65.9% 63.4% 56.4% 18.4% 50.1% 17.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 8.4% 38.9% 12.0% 5.9% 2.7% 4.9% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 25.1% 53.7% 41.0% 31.5% 14.0% 32.3% 16.5% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##