* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 62 67 70 70 70 67 62 52 43 37 29 22 16 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 62 67 70 70 70 67 62 52 43 37 29 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 56 59 59 59 60 58 52 43 34 27 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 5 4 5 7 10 10 16 19 24 27 25 27 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 2 3 1 0 -1 0 5 8 10 8 5 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 187 145 139 196 248 146 139 170 173 188 190 189 199 210 233 234 241 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 151 151 150 137 136 141 140 137 130 123 120 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 56 57 59 59 59 64 62 58 47 32 21 18 16 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 19 18 18 19 20 21 20 17 13 12 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -10 -6 -7 10 23 19 26 28 31 53 66 77 75 53 48 200 MB DIV 48 40 48 43 22 33 5 13 54 43 26 21 0 -5 8 1 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 1 2 3 1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 646 723 808 908 1011 1168 1253 1328 1355 1342 1281 1219 1158 1116 1092 1068 1044 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.1 110.1 111.2 112.3 114.5 116.4 117.9 118.9 119.5 119.7 119.7 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 16 14 13 4 6 11 14 12 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 25. 25. 22. 17. 7. -2. -8. -16. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 50.9% 38.0% 24.9% 17.0% 37.3% 36.2% 15.9% Logistic: 36.9% 58.4% 57.3% 47.0% 18.2% 44.5% 16.5% 9.6% Bayesian: 4.8% 36.1% 11.8% 4.9% 1.5% 6.6% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 19.1% 48.5% 35.7% 25.6% 12.3% 29.5% 18.2% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##