* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 46 49 51 51 50 50 50 49 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 46 49 51 51 50 50 50 49 47 45 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 41 40 41 41 40 39 36 34 32 28 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 7 3 4 5 8 10 12 14 18 20 23 23 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 238 216 226 222 169 216 223 228 203 215 220 224 227 222 214 207 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.2 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 155 155 152 153 146 141 143 143 142 134 127 124 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 56 56 55 57 57 61 67 71 72 71 68 65 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -4 2 0 0 12 8 12 11 7 3 10 3 -10 -16 -17 -19 200 MB DIV 15 26 49 38 27 38 -9 -17 -23 7 36 60 26 4 13 -4 -5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 4 2 2 1 1 4 6 9 9 8 LAND (KM) 447 508 576 638 711 893 1077 1191 1293 1367 1384 1339 1278 1218 1185 1177 1177 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.2 15.1 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.3 107.2 108.2 109.2 111.3 113.5 115.8 117.5 118.6 119.4 119.9 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 7 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 24 22 23 16 14 11 8 11 13 13 7 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 23.9% 22.2% 16.6% 11.9% 19.2% 17.2% 13.9% Logistic: 5.2% 23.9% 17.1% 9.4% 2.6% 10.9% 4.7% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 5.4% 17.5% 13.3% 8.7% 4.9% 10.2% 7.4% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/24/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##