* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 23 25 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 21 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 20 14 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 28 43 63 91 179 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.7 24.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 114 110 103 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 100 100 98 94 89 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 31 30 32 36 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -146 -163 -176 -168 -167 -158 -152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -57 -56 -20 -12 -7 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 7 4 7 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1952 1918 1885 1846 1810 1759 1718 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.0 30.4 30.9 31.4 32.4 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.1 46.5 45.9 44.3 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.6 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/24/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.2% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/24/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 26 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 23 25 18HR AGO 30 29 27 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 25 24 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 23 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 18 18 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT