* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132013 10/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 19 17 17 18 17 18 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 19 17 17 18 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 33 35 30 22 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 4 15 21 38 86 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 25.8 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 120 120 111 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 100 101 101 95 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 33 31 30 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -119 -133 -152 -167 -176 -165 -165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -51 -24 -48 -53 -38 -12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 8 8 8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1968 1949 1930 1895 1861 1781 1710 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.6 31.7 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.4 48.0 47.6 47.2 45.8 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 4 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -22. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.3 48.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 LORENZO 10/23/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 19 17 17 18 17 18 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 34 32 28 26 24 22 21 20 18 18 19 18 19 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 31 27 25 23 21 20 19 17 17 18 17 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 26 22 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT