* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 57 57 58 60 63 65 68 71 70 73 72 72 72 67 62 V (KT) LAND 65 59 57 57 58 60 63 65 68 71 70 73 72 72 72 67 62 V (KT) LGEM 65 57 52 49 48 46 45 45 47 50 51 52 54 55 53 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 17 15 11 10 12 7 5 7 9 12 16 13 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 -2 3 1 -3 -3 -2 -3 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 185 217 238 254 266 229 208 223 205 233 156 190 182 197 197 186 195 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 157 157 160 159 156 152 149 149 147 143 138 133 123 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 59 59 57 59 56 53 52 55 58 60 66 63 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 16 17 18 20 20 22 22 23 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 2 1 -4 -19 11 0 9 19 34 36 40 33 29 1 -27 200 MB DIV 52 38 35 56 55 40 36 6 10 13 26 -10 37 22 54 10 -18 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 0 1 1 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 149 176 204 234 253 327 424 519 629 761 852 884 892 863 821 760 680 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.1 102.4 102.9 103.4 104.6 106.1 107.6 109.2 110.9 112.5 114.0 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 17 17 23 25 23 27 18 14 13 10 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 13. 12. 11. 12. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. -0. 3. 6. 5. 8. 7. 7. 7. 2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##