* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 86 82 79 74 71 71 70 69 68 69 69 68 67 64 61 V (KT) LAND 95 90 86 82 79 74 71 71 70 69 68 69 69 68 67 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 85 81 78 72 66 62 58 56 53 51 48 45 42 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 14 17 18 15 11 13 11 8 12 13 19 20 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 -1 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 180 188 203 219 243 268 271 244 253 251 244 215 212 207 201 209 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 154 156 158 160 158 155 152 149 148 147 144 140 132 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 7 7 9 6 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 59 57 57 56 55 56 55 55 54 52 48 47 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 15 13 6 -19 -20 9 -1 3 9 7 2 0 -26 -50 -67 200 MB DIV 62 73 69 47 43 31 19 44 -3 -7 -11 11 9 10 -18 8 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 3 5 2 4 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 134 145 156 176 189 238 319 408 495 591 720 851 851 821 768 706 649 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.1 102.2 102.4 102.7 103.6 104.8 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.4 112.1 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 17 17 18 23 24 23 26 21 15 12 10 7 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -21. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -21. -24. -24. -25. -26. -27. -26. -26. -27. -28. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.5 102.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 -1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/22/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##