* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132013 10/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 44 44 42 36 30 27 25 23 21 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 44 44 42 36 30 27 25 23 21 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 46 45 41 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 19 20 18 31 34 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 261 285 300 283 316 332 335 357 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 123 122 121 117 112 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 107 106 104 103 99 95 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 50 48 45 46 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -112 -99 -94 -82 -77 -82 -94 -137 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 30 30 4 -15 -16 -9 -24 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 6 2 11 14 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1575 1662 1750 1837 1825 1796 1773 1744 1724 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.2 54.5 53.7 52.8 52.0 50.2 48.8 47.6 46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 4 4 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.7 55.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.5% 7.9% 5.3% 4.1% 5.9% 5.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 6.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.8% 3.7% 1.9% 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132013 THIRTEEN 10/21/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 44 44 42 36 30 27 25 23 21 21 21 22 23 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 40 38 32 26 23 21 19 17 17 17 18 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 34 32 26 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT