* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 103 100 96 87 77 70 65 66 66 67 67 66 66 65 65 V (KT) LAND 95 101 103 100 96 87 77 70 65 66 66 67 67 66 66 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 95 102 104 102 98 91 85 80 75 72 72 73 72 69 65 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 14 14 15 16 12 8 12 14 10 12 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 3 -3 -2 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 181 176 172 177 190 213 226 259 266 256 245 243 252 244 238 222 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 154 156 160 161 163 159 152 148 146 145 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 58 56 57 55 52 49 45 47 46 48 47 49 51 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 42 50 52 21 27 15 10 7 30 17 22 13 8 3 -8 200 MB DIV 65 71 82 62 46 50 39 22 8 24 18 16 -10 -17 -23 -11 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 2 0 3 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 192 174 156 139 123 114 122 148 208 295 403 514 627 720 792 833 895 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.4 103.1 104.0 105.2 106.7 108.3 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 5 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 21 23 27 24 23 23 19 15 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 5. 1. -8. -18. -25. -29. -29. -29. -28. -28. -29. -29. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.0 102.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.3% 25.8% 24.3% 19.8% 14.4% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 5.0% 5.8% 4.1% 5.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 12.9% 12.2% 4.9% 2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 14.3% 11.7% 8.7% 7.6% 5.9% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##