* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 19 24 26 24 20 21 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 248 244 242 246 255 251 273 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 113 109 106 105 115 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 40 35 31 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -24 -23 -36 -40 -34 -33 -38 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 -17 -23 -21 -19 4 -37 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 4 7 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1060 1100 1143 1194 1246 1344 1460 1580 1705 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.3 121.9 122.5 123.8 125.2 126.6 128.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. -28. -29. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 120.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##