* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 15 19 23 21 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 262 242 242 243 250 258 264 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.7 25.0 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 120 116 113 108 111 116 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 45 42 35 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -27 -25 -20 -34 -46 -40 -37 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -4 5 -6 -22 -29 -2 -3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 6 4 5 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1025 1056 1090 1131 1173 1273 1388 1489 1600 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.7 120.3 120.9 121.5 122.6 123.7 124.8 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 119.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##