* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 12 17 20 22 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 283 260 244 243 251 252 251 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.6 25.2 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 122 120 115 109 107 113 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 45 43 36 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -21 -26 -24 -21 -41 -35 -32 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -2 -6 6 -11 -16 -3 23 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 5 6 7 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 1018 1044 1075 1109 1194 1300 1418 1511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.2 120.8 121.9 122.9 124.0 125.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##